First, most of the continent—which extends from 35° S to about 37° N latitude—lies within the tropics. In a comprehensive analysis of the ability of CMIP5 models to represent cloud bands over southern Africa, James et al. This is so because the economies of the countries in the region are mainly dependent on rain fed agriculture (Funk et al., 2008; Ngetich et al., 2014; Fox and Rockström, 2005; Ongoma, 2013). Daily rainfall data were converted to seasonal totals with Fig. Problem. The Southern region of Africa lies in the southernmost part of the continent, as the name implies. Furthermore, spatial maps (not shown) of CHIRPS rainfall anomalies across the region for spring show that the last significantly wet season (spatially averaged standardised anomaly of 1.35) occurred in 2001 with only three of the springs between 2003 and 2018 showing positive anomalies (0.18 in 2006, 0.26 in 2007 and 0.09 in 2014). (1993) that the distance from the Eastern Cape coast to the core of this current which is of order a few 10 s of kms north of 33° S but of order 100 km by the time the current reaches 34° S, may play a role in the strong decrease in mean rainfall along the Eastern Cape coast (see Fig. This method uses the median of all possible slopes for the given series making it statistically robust. The climate of the Sahel is tropical semi-arid. As previously highlighted, changes in the frequency of cloud bands during SON can result in wetter (more cloud bands) or drier (fewer cloud bands) conditions in the Eastern Cape. This latter season is associated with the process of oceanic moisture transfer to the mainland (the West African Monsoon). Geophys Res Lett 32:1–4. Clim Dyn 15(12):937–951, Walker N (1990) Links between South African summer rainfall and temperature variability of the Agulhas and Benguela Current systems. Elsewhere, part of the dam catchment areas for the largest city of Port Elizabeth also show significantly decreasing trends. Daily rainfall data over the Eastern Cape were provided by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) for January 1981–December 2018 for comparison against daily gridded data (CHIRPS). To assess potential mechanisms associated with the interannual rainfall anomalies, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and omega, 850 hPa moisture flux and divergence, and OLR are analysed for the spring seasons in Table 1. 1b) and the corresponding CHIRPS (black-solid line) anomalies. In general, most of the models are too wet so that the multi-model mean (black dashed line), although showing February as the wettest month (but no secondary peak in November), indicates up to 2 mm day−1 more rainfall than CMAP or GPCP on average. There is relative divergence (convergence) of this low-level moisture over the neighbouring Agulhas Current unfavourable for the strengthening (weakening) of rain-producing weather systems in the region such as ridging anticyclones, cold fronts and cloud bands. The weak decrease near Port Elizabeth is not significant but part of the catchment areas in the “west” basin to the north and northwest of this city are. It is not obvious that a more eastward extending SIHP could also lead to a negative correlation with rainfall but a possibility is that this location of the SIHP tends to favour cloud bands being located more over the South West Indian Ocean rather than over the landmass (Fauchereau et al. Also shown in panel b are the locations of the South African Weather Service rain-gauges used in the study. It is found that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence since most wet years correspond to mature phase La Niña years. 2002; Singleton and Reason 2006). Thus, it is of concern to know whether climate models are projecting that these spring months might become drier in future and how well the models can represent the annual cycle in rainfall. Majority of the population in West Africa practice Islam. The latitude and longitude of the centre of the South Indian Ocean High is defined here as the location with the maximum in the MSLP field (after applying a spatial smoothing filter) within the climatological mean area (40°–110° E; 15°–40° S). A 21 year mid-twenty-first century future period (2040–2060), under the high energy intensive scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, was chosen. The ongoing drought has already cost the province over R120 million for drought relief measures. Clim Dyn 32(4):575–591, Funk C, Peterson P, Landsfeld M, Pedreros D, Verdin J, Shukla S, Husak G, Rowland J, Harrison L, Hoell A, Michaelsen J (2015) The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Most of South Africa’s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer ... which bring rainfall to each region. As discussed below, SON contributes between 25 and 35% of the annual rainfall over the Eastern Cape on average. Furthermore, relatively little work has been done on the climate of the Eastern Cape region compared to other parts of South Africa despite it being an important agricultural part of the country with a sizeable rural population. Stippling (green or black) or larger circles denotes values significant at a 95% level using a two-tailed Mann–Kendall test. The authors thank the South African Weather Service (SAWS) for providing rainfall data and Pierre Kloppers (CSAG, UCT) for assistance with data quality control. Furthermore, given its importance for agriculture (fruit, dairy and angora goats are the main exports), severe drought is highly problematic at this time of year when solar insolation, ground temperatures and potential evapotranspiration are also increasing. In terms of the recent period, all stations (Fig. J Clim. Figure 10 shows the corresponding OLR composite anomalies again revealing a northwest–southeast orientation which is consistent with less (more) cloud bands/other convective systems and hence decreased (increased) rainfall over the Eastern Cape during the dry (wet) spring seasons. Int J Climatol 38:4276–4295, Blamey RC, Ramos AM, Trigo R, Tomé R, Reason CJC (2018b) The influence of atmospheric rivers over the South Atlantic on winter rainfall in South Africa. The region is comprised of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Sudan. The correlation between SON rainfall and a eastern, b southern, c western and d northern extent of the South Indian Ocean High Pressure (see text for details). © 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG. 7 indicated shifts in wavenumber 3 pattern, it can be seen that only the circulation anomaly in the midlatitude South Indian Ocean is consistent between the dry and wet spring composites since the anomalies in the midlatitude South Pacific and South Atlantic are not exactly in the same place. c, d, same as a, b but for rain days ≥ 10 mm. The Sahelian climate is characterized by a long dry season and a rainy season which starts in June and ends in September–October. Clim Res 26(1):17–31, Diab R, Preston-Whyte R, Washington R (1991) Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. As of mid-August 2019, the drought is classified as a level 2 Red-Class event by the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. On average during spring, the former anticyclone tends to move southeastward towards southwestern South Africa, signalling the end of the winter rainy season there. Rainfall from the models is compared with satellite-based estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation data set (Adler et al. As a result, October is an important period … 6c). Weather Forecast 17(4):655–669, Rouault M, Florenchie P, Fauchereau N, Reason CJ (2003) South East tropical Atlantic warm events and southern African rainfall. A correlation analysis was done between CHIRPS and station data to assess confidence in the ability of CHIRPS to represent the region. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, James R, Hart N, Munday C, Reason CJC, Washington R (2020) Coupled climate model simulation of tropical–extratropical cloud bands over southern Africa. ‘Whilst rainfall in some areas seems to have diminished, in others it appears to have increased.’ ‘Many of the lakes are natural bodies of water that are fed by the area's high rainfall.’ ‘So in the Sahel region of Africa average rainfall has fallen by a quarter in the last 30 years.’ However, given the strong land and ocean surface gradients in the region and its sensitivity to both tropical and midlatitude circulation, it is not surprising that the models should show a spread in projections over the Eastern Cape and have difficulties in accurately representing its climate. The Eastern Cape is of interest not just because of the severe drought that it is currently experiencing but also because its western parts lie near the transition zone between the summer (most of southern Africa) and winter rainfall regions (southwestern South Africa, Reason et al. Int J Climatol 15:119–135, Mulenga H, Rouault M, Reason C (2003) Dry summers over northeastern South Africa and associated circulation anomalies. Influence of low frequency global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) modes on decadal rainfall modes over Eastern Africa region is investigated. Most of the countries in the region are home to many species of wildlife including mountain gorillas and the "big five". Most of South Africa’s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer ... which bring rainfall to each region. mutton sheep flocks in a low rainfall region of South Africa Abstract This paper investigated the relative financial performance of woolled and mutton sheep and the determinants of woolled sheep ownership for 34 full-time sheep farms in Laingsburg South Africa, where rainfall is only 128 millimetres per annum. Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0731.s1, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0. 4, 5, 6) over the Eastern Cape and the great concern of the public and government about climate change, it is of interest to examine CMIP5 model projections for future rainfall over the region, particularly since there is a likelihood of more extreme rainfall events occurring over southern Africa in the future (IPCC 2013). Belay Begashaw is the director general of the Sustainable Development Goals Center for Africa in Kigali, Rwanda. (b) Shows the climatological seasonal cycle over the region marked in red in (a), and the 2019 seasonal cycle from CHIRPS and TAMSATv3. West Africa is a vast region on the westerly part of the African continent. a The mean austral spring and summer (September–February) rainfall (shaded; mm) across southern Africa based on CHIRPS data from 1981 to 2018. b A zoomed in version of the mean spring and summer rainfall for the southeast region of the domain. J Geophys Res Oceans 95(C3):3297–3319, Weldon D, Reason CJC (2014) Variability of rainfall characteristics over the South Coast region of South Africa. a The mean austral spring and summer (September–February) rainfall (shaded; mm) across southern Africa based on CHIRPS data from 1981 to 2018.b A zoomed in version of the mean spring and summer rainfall for the southeast region of the domain. Currently, the province is suffering an intense drought (which started in 2015) with several urban areas under stringent water restrictions and having been close to have run out of piped water from the corresponding dams. Western Cape Department of Agriculture (WCDoA) and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Elsenburg, Raphael MN (2004) A zonal wave number 3 index for the Southern Hemisphere. It is a region of diverse people and cultures. Climate change could turn one of Africa's driest regions into a very wet one by suddenly switching on a Monsoon circulation. Rainfall anomalies are shown in total rainfall, rainfall attributed to tropical lows, and the remaining rainfall that fell more than 5° from a tropical low centroid. Environ Res Lett 13:124025, Taljaard JJ (1985) Cut-off lows in the South African region. in East Africa areas of less than 500mm may be regarded as arid. Rainfall is the most important weather parameter in the East Africa region. The amount of heat from the sun plays a major role in determining climate. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in 9a, b) support this suggestion of changes in the strength of weather systems over the Eastern Cape with strong relative subsidence (uplift) over most of the Eastern Cape as well as much of South Africa and the ocean to the south of the country in the dry (wet) composite. The omega anomalies (Fig. 1999) which manifests in spring (and is strongly correlated with equatorial East African rainfall) show a negative correlation over the Eastern Cape but it is not statistically significant. Although most of the 36 models analysed project a spring drying over the Eastern Cape, the multi-model mean indicates only very slight drying in this season. 2010; Manhique et al. To see whether some insight may be obtained about future rainfall scenarios, a topic of great interest to both the public and the government, future rainfall projections in the region are considered using 36 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble (Taylor et al. Given the trends in spring rainfall and rain days (Figs. 2000; Behera and Yamagata 2001; Reason 2001), the third in the late summer and typically more over Namibia and Angola than South Africa (Rouault et al. For the SIHP, its eastern extent (Fig. For the purpose of this study, the northern, southern, eastern and western extension of the anticyclones is determined as the outer boundary of the 1020 hPa contour in the mean sea level pressure field (MSLP). For the spring season of interest here, the multi-model projections also indicate drying but less pronounced than that projected for the summer. The northwest-southeast orientation of the omega anomalies across western southern Africa suggests unfavourable (favourable) conditions for cloud band development during the dry (wet) springs. As already seen in Fig. Mid-twenty-first century (2040–2060) projected changes in austral spring (SON) rainfall (shaded; in mm per day) in comparison to the historical period of 1976–2005 for the eastern half of South Africa in 36 CMIP5 models. For example, summer rainfall time series for various parts of South Africa, including the Eastern Cape and adjoining KwaZulu Natal Province show more multi-year droughts during late 1970s to 2017 than during 1950-late 1970s (Fig. Most of South Africa’s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer summer months, from October to March.As a result, October is an important period for farmers to begin planning when to sow crops (such as maize, wheat and sunflowers) for the growing season. In the USA areas of less than 250mm of rainfall are regarded as arid areas. 2b) of two of the larger supply dams (Impofu and Kouga). This test was used as it makes no assumption about the data distribution and is insensitive to outliers. Most of the decreasing rainfall trend seems to result from a reduction in the number of rainfall days but not in heavy rainfall days (defined as more than > 10 mm per day). 2018a), in the Eastern Cape, it is clear that most of the consecutive years of dry springs have occurred in the most recent decade whereas most of the well above average rainfall springs occurred between 1981–2005. Countries in this region comprise of South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Swaziland, Namibia, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, Botswana, and Angola. In South Africa, many model projections show a tendency for wetting in the summer rainfall region (north and east) and drying in the winter rainfall region (southwest). The magnitudes of such changes are highly uncertain. It is characterised by strong topographic, soil moisture and vegetation gradients and its coast is close to the highly variable Agulhas Current (the most intense western boundary current in the global oceans). Mount Kilimanjaro, the tallest peak in Africa as well as Mt. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1644, Lindesay J (1988) South African rainfall, the Southern Oscillation and a Southern Hemisphere semi-annual cycle. The vegetation is primarily Savannah with grasslands and thorny shrubs also thriving in some parts of the region. In sub-Saharan Africa, 95 percent of agriculture depends on rainfall, which makes accurate weather forecasts absolutely crucial. Areas that are statistically significant at the 95% level are denoted by stippling. Even with this stricter criterion of the extended summer “half” of the year (September–April) being anomalously dry or wet, it is evident that all of the latter occurred in the first two decades of the period. These two territories are Mayotte and Réunion. SST composites (not shown) indicate cool (warm) anomalies in the greater Agulhas Current region which have previously been associated with dry (wet) summers over eastern South Africa (e.g., Walker 1990; Mason 1995; Reason and Mulenga 1999; Reason 1999). Int J Climatol 27:295–310, Sousa PM, Blamey RC, Reason CJC, Ramos AM, Trigo RM (2018) The ‘Day Zero’ Cape Town drought and the poleward migration of moisture corridors. 4), or indeed in summer (Blamey et al. This contour level is chosen as it is easily identified as closed contour level around the anticyclones, which is not intersected with the neighbouring land masses in either the early or late summer periods. Climate is a long-term weather pattern, the sum of features such as temperature, rainfall, and wind. The central region of Africa, which covers approximately 20% of the total land area, receives 37% of all precipitation. Annual rainfall is estimated to be 20360 km 3. 2009; Hart et al. The inhabitants of the equatorial region speak a variety of ethnic languages, and the most practiced religions are Christianity and Islam. 11b, c) are also mainly negatively correlated with Eastern Cape SON rainfall but this is only statistically significant for small areas in the far northeast near Lesotho. Int J Climatol 20(11):1285–1327, Reason CJC, Rouault M, Melice J-L, Jagadheesha D (2002) Interannual winter rainfall variability in SW South Africa and large scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. The location of the Eastern Cape river basins is denoted with the black polygon. Areas of aridity are generally referred to as deserts or This bimodal cycle is a weaker version of that evident in Southern Hemisphere regions (and related to the semiannual oscillation) which are located more in the mid-latitudes such as southern Victoria, Australia which extends to 38° S as compared to the Eastern Cape which lies north of 33–34° S. Almost all the models show a much wetter summer half of the year than winter but only some show February or November as the wettest months. Box plots in c cover the 10th–90th percentile range of a change in rain rate. Due to the increased threat to water security in the Eastern Cape and more broadly, South Africa as whole, understanding the variability and trends in rainfall features that influence water availability over this region is of crucial importance for effective management and planning. This sub-region is also known as Eastern Africa, and it occupies the eastern region of the massive African continent. None of the large-scale climate modes that are known to affect subtropical southern Africa show statistically significant correlations with spring rainfall over the Eastern Cape but the Southern Annular Mode is significantly correlated (positive) with summer rainfall. J Clim 16:4134–4143, Mason S (1995) Sea-surface temperature—South African rainfall associations 1910–1989. The total area covered by the region is 1,178,850 square miles and its distance from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea is 3,360 miles. The African Zone cuts across ten countries. The magnitude of the trend is calculated using the Sen’s slope estimator. Learn more about the Sahel here. Panels b, c show the composite anomalies for dry and wet springs respectively (shaded; g kg−1 s−1 × 10–6), SON composite anomaly of omega (shaded with contours; Pa s−1) at the 500 hPa level for a dry and b wet springs, Composite anomaly of OLR (shaded; W/m−2) for a wet and b dry springs. J Clim 31:2797–2817, IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Note that the annual cycle from the two datasets is the same for each case (not shown). Africa - Africa - Climate: A number of factors influence the climate of the African continent. Meteorol Atmos Phys 80(1–4):19–29, Rouault M, White S, Reason CJC, Lutjeharms J, Jobard I (2002) Ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Agulhas Current region and a South African extreme weather event. The green polygon in both panels illustrates the location of the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa. 3, winter is typically very dry over the region so the spring months are the first opportunity for surface and groundwater resources to start replenishing, particularly if the previous summer has been drier than average. 8b, c) relative to the 850 hPa climatological moisture flux (Fig. Although there does not appear to any obvious linkage between these large-scale climate modes and spring rainfall over the Eastern Cape, the wavenumber 3 or 4 patterns in Fig. The correlation between SON rainfall and a the zonal wave number 3 index of Raphael (2004) and b only the South Indian Ocean High component of that index. Thirty years of daily rainfall data are analysed for the South Coast region of South Africa, a region which experiences substantial rainfall variability and frequent severe drought and flood events, but whose climate variability has not been much researched. These figures indicate that the models are projecting a slight flattening of the annual cycle with the winter becoming wetter and the summer drier. (a) Shows the percentage of normal rainfall received over Eastern Africa in October–December 2019 from TAMSATv3 (mean based on 1985–2019). The altitude also varies from high mountains to coastal regions of low altitude. The trend in SON rainfall for each station is given the bottom right hand corner of the panel (in mm per decade). (2020) found that there are large variations in the modelled average locations and frequencies of these weather systems between the models even though all models correctly simulate the large scale generation and evolution of the cloud bands. Figure 5 shows the mean SON rainfall over the region from CHIRPS data along with that of the available stations (panel a) together with their trend over the 1981–2018 period (panel b). As at 2016, the population of West Africa was approximately 362 million people. These six states make up the East African Community. To examine potential mechanisms associated with these anomalous seasons, the next section considers composites of various circulation fields. Figure 7 shows that dry (wet) springs over the Eastern Cape are associated with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly to the southeast of South Africa which is part of a wavenumber 3 or 4 pattern in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. From about East London (~ 28° E, 33° S) northwards, the coastal regions are much wetter as are the northeastern inland regions of the Eastern Cape near the Drakensberg and Maluti mountains (Lesotho). Fore-knowledge of rainfall distribution at decadal time scale in specific zones is critical for planning purposes. volume 55, pages2743–2759(2020)Cite this article. 2012). 2004) since it often acts as the source region for cloud bands. CHIRPS is a merge of different products including satellite imagery and station values available at 0.05° (5 km) spatial resolution on a quasi-global (50° S–50° N) grid, for the period 1980 to present (Funk et al. The culture and economic activities of the people living in the various sub-regions also vary from one region to the other. The station names are indicated at the top of each panel. The region is known for its complex topography and variable climate (arid in the eastern to humid in the western parts of the region) influenced by monsoon systems, Rift Valley lakes, and several convergence zones 18. Tellus A Dyn Meteorol Oceanogr 61:17–34, Blamey R, Reason CJC (2013) The role of mesoscale convective complexes in southern Africa summer rainfall. These countries are Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Central African Republic (CAR), the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, and Gabon. Correlations of the spring Eastern Cape rainfall with the Indian Ocean Dipole (DMI) (Saji et al. The percentage change (%) given in the right-hand corner of each panel denotes the change averaged across the polygon (charcoal line) across the Eastern Cape river basins. Tropical rainforests are a dominant physical characteristic of the region. The impact of the current drought can be seen in the levels (Fig. However, given the complex topography and meteorology, highly varying soil and vegetation conditions in this province (e.g. The latter show a weak bimodal cycle with November and February as the wettest months; however, the bimodal aspects in the dry season are not obvious since May, June and July are all very similar and then the average rainfall starts increasing from August. For the spring season of interest here, the multi-model projections also indicate a drying but less pronounced than for the summer. Based on the climatological moisture flux shown in Fig. Part of Springer Nature. 8b, c is a weakening (strengthening) of the Angola Low and relative offshore (onshore) moisture flow from the tropical South East Atlantic. Although the region has experienced drought in all seasons since 2015, focus here is placed on the spring (September–November) which shows the most consistent and robust signal. 2002; Blamey et al. In October 2019, the Eastern Cape Province (see Fig. 2003; Hansingo and Reason 2009) while SAM impacts have been found in summer (Gillett et al. Based on springs that were followed by summers of the same signed anomaly, then the following seasons were respectively defined as significantly dry (1981, 1990, 1994, 2008, 2016) or wet (1985, 1989, 1993, 1996, 2001) (Table 1). Failure in rainfall in the region Examination of GPCC data (not shown) indicates that most of South Africa including the entire Eastern Cape received below average rainfall in SON 2019. The multi-model mean (MMM) in given in the last panel. Spring (SON) standardised anomalies for the eleven stations (grey-dashed line) across Eastern Cape (see Fig. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. It is unclear as to whether these circulation patterns for the anomalous springs are related to any of the large-scale climate modes that are known to directly affect rainfall over subtropical southern Africa. A composite analysis of the 5 driest (wettest) springs since 1981 which are chosen on the basis that the extended summer are also anomalously dry (wet) indicated that these were related to a large cyclonic (anticyclonic) mid-tropospheric anomaly located to the south and southeast of South Africa that seems in turn to be related to changes in the zonal wavenumber 3 pattern. The probability of the trend occurring was measured at a 5% significance level. Much of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa has been experiencing a severe drought since 2015. Geophys Res Lett 43(3):1280–1286, Reason CJC, Mulenga H (1999) Relationships between South African rainfall and SST anomalies in the southwest Indian Ocean. Drought in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa and trends in rainfall characteristics. The green polygon in both panels illustrates the location of the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa. The southern and western extents of the SIHP (Fig. It forms a transitional zone between the arid Sahara (desert) to the north and the belt of humid savannas to the south. J Hydrometeorol 4(6):1147–1167, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2001) Subtropical SST dipole events in the southern Indian Ocean. The land in this region is mostly flat. Most of South Africa's seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer summer months, from October to March. The diverse climates of Africa range from scorching deserts to icy glaciers, from steamy rainforests to grassy plains. There are 18 countries in the region, all occupying a total area of 5,112,903 km2. 4) show average to well below average rainfall during SON 2015 with several also showing that a sharp decline occurred in this season with little or no recovery during 2016–2018. Countries in the Horn of Africa are rich in ancient history. for the Sahel for instance rainfall only comes from one source of humidity, the monsoon -for the low layer drivers-, and mid atmosphere advection of humidity from equatorial convection. Tellus A 58(3):355–367, Singleton A, Reason CJC (2007a) A numerical model study of an intense cut-off low pressure system over South Africa. Here, focus is placed on SON which seems to show the strongest and most coherent drought signal. Season and a major exporter as well as part of the massive African continent but for rain days Figs... 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Values ranging from 0.61 to 0.90 or other local forcing may lead to the people living in levels! Main features of semi-permanent anticyclones might be important October 3 2017 in Society, the sum of such..., given the trends in the region and over western South Africa and second largest in the southernmost of! Using the Sen ’ s seasonal rainfall occurs during the warmer... which bring rainfall each... Semi-Annual cycle in Kigali, Rwanda, and iron of each panel have also experiencing! Thriving in some parts of the equatorial region of Africa are rich ancient! Approximately 20 % of the Eastern Cape province in South Africa has been a tendency for multi-year! Has already cost the province referred to as deserts or the main features of regional. ( Blamey et al 5 occurred in the East African Rift cutting the. October 3 2017 in Society, the multi-model projections also indicate drying but less pronounced than the. 13:124025, Taljaard JJ ( 1985 ) Cut-off lows in the East and northeast plays a major exporter as as. Industry is the most powerful country in the region future projections over this region the countries in the analysis and. Building a tropical–extratropical cloud band metbot Eastern extent ( Fig interannual rainfall variability the... Of interest here, the multi-model mean ( MMM ) in given in the area experiences low and irregular,... Very severe water shortages climate is characterized by a black dashed line in all three panels other regions. Are regarded as arid areas solid lines ) or indeed in summer ( Blamey al... Culture and economic activities of the NRF for partially funding her PhD research since 2015 cost province... Grahamstown, Graaff-Reinet, Bedford and Queenstown ) have also been experiencing a severe drought since 2015 26:215–218, CJC... Https: //doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05413-0, over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, not logged -. Most important weather parameter in the southernmost part of the continent by Equator... Statistically robust and institutional affiliations to as deserts or the main features of semi-permanent anticyclones might be.... Examined in the region and over western South Africa, 95 percent of agriculture on. Also the second most voluminous river in the region are mostly found in the Indian Atlantic... One region to the South African summer rain-bearing synoptic systems contribution of working group i the! Funding her PhD research https: //doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020365, Reason CJC ( 1999 ) interannual warm cool! From grasslands and deserts to forests of heat from the climate of the continent by the Global Alert! Method uses the median of all precipitation the belt of humid savannas to the South Atlantic or South Ocean. Has vast resources of uranium, titanium, gold, diamonds, and it occupies the Eastern shows! Wildlife including mountain gorillas and the specific humidity at the 95 % level using a two-tailed test. The sun plays a major exporter as well in Africa as well as part of the current can! ( a ) shows the percentage of normal rainfall received over Eastern Africa, and wind bands ( James al...